Author(s): Christoph Kupferle; Thomas Hirschhauser
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: Climate Change (CC) and flood risk are interconnected through the key factor precipitation. Hence the predicted change in weather patterns, e. g. the amount and intensity of rainfall due to CC, can have a negative effect on flood risk in a certain area. Modelling climate change is a complex and time consuming task. This paper presents a possible methodology to identify a higher risk of flooding by identifying and classifying flood triggering rain events in Northern Germany. The main factor influencing the shape and peak (discharge) of a fluvial flood hydrograph is the triggering rainfall event in a catchment. Depending on the hydrologic and topographic conditions in a river catchment a certain fraction of the precipitation will become effective runoff. The portion of this effective runoff depends on the hydrological properties (e. g. soil conditions, evaporation, initial soil moisture) and the dominating type of land use (e. g. dwellings, industry, agriculture) in the catchment area. The aim of this study is to identify flood triggering rain events, systematically cluster these events and assess the potential of such a cluster to cause exceptional floods.
Year: 2010