Author(s): Shenglian Guo; Changjiang Xu; Xiaohong Sun; Pan Liu
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Flood control system; Three Gorges Project; Flood simulation; Risk analysis
Abstract: Based on the characteristics of flood control system in the middle reach of the Yangtze River basin, a multiple-input single output linear system model is proposed by using the principle and method of modern system engineering. Four inter-basins, Shashi, Luoshan, Hankou and Dongting Lake, are selected for flood simulation case study. The model is applied to these inter-basins and the simulated flood hydrographs are compared with those depicted from observed data. The results are satisfactory with high model efficiencies and low relative errors. The model will provide technical support and service for flood forecasting and flood dispatch decision as well as risk analysis in this region. The 1954 and 1998 large floods are chosen for prototype of the Three Gorges reservoir’s design flood. The risk of flood control system in the river reach of the Yangtze basin is analyzed based on the reservoir operation regulations and flood detention area management rules. It is shown that the construction of the Three Gorges Project will significantly reduce the flooding risk in the middle and lower river reach of the Yangtze basin.
Year: 2002