Author(s): Ali Bagheri; Mohammad R. Baradarannia; Amin Sarang; Peder Hjorth
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: System dynamics; Simulation; Water resources; Urban water; Tehran
Abstract: Several mathematical modeling approaches are used to model water resources systems such as deterministic and non-deterministic, lumped and distributed, steady and dynamic, simulation and optimization approaches. All these modeling paradigms – categorized as open systems – assume that the input conditions to the system will not change during their operation. What is happening in the real world is somewhat different. Due to their dynamic behaviors, real world events exert feedbacks from their outputs to their inputs which may cause the input conditions vary with time. This is the main focus of the system dynamics theory which has been introduced in this paper to be applied in water resources systems. Based on this paradigm the urban water system in Tehran-Iran was modeled. Seven dynamic mechanisms were captured in which feedback loops have essential roles to cause the dynamic behaviors. Running the simulation model for Tehran urban water system showed that there would be water crisis in the future if the existing trends continued. That is because of the failure in distribution technical capacity building mechanism. To evaluate different alternatives for respective decision making, three scenarios were analyzed among which the network maintenance was found to be the most effective.
Year: 2005