Author(s): V. Ivanov; Z. Gudkovich; V. Karklin; S. Frolov; I. Ashik; T. Alexeeva; I. Repina
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: There are indirect indications that seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean periodically emerged in the past. Presently observed pan-Arctic degradation of the sea ice cover is conventionally explained by continuous warming in the lower troposphere during the past century, which accelerated in 1990s because of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect, although, there are skeptics who argue that present warming is actually the manifestation of long-period natural cycle. Along with the progressive decay of the sea ice cover, the prediction of seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean no longer sounds fantastic, but rather seems a real possibility. Changing state of the Arctic sea ice requires scientifically justified assessment of how this may affect livelihood of the Arctic nations, commercial fishery, navigation and other human activities in the North Polar area. Historically, Arctic shelf seas were used as a transport route between Europe and Asia. The Eastern Passage, known as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), goes along the Eurasian continental margin from Murmansk to Bering Strait. Increased duration of ice freewaters along the Eurasian coastline opens opportunities for more effective and economic navigation along the NSR. Assessment of navigation efficiency along the NSR in the 20 century, at present and in the future was carried out in framework of EU ACCESS project. Historical data sets were used to study regimes and variability of the key sea ice parameters along the traditional navigational routes and along the other ones, which may become potentially suitable for navigation under conditions of reduced sea ice cover. Multiyear experience of navigation in the Arctic determined the basic route options with favorable conditions for shipping. In most cases, the optimal route is either a combination of specific segments of recommended routes or just one of them. Intensified usage of the NSR during the recent years confirms profitability of the regular cargo transportation between Europe and Asia. Increase of the cargo transportation, application of flexible rate policy and improvement of sea ice conditions in summer provided intensification of the transit navigation. However, it should be stressed that ice distribution along the NSR is essentially irregular. As a result, unfavorable conditions of navigation may emerge in compact critical zones, leading to time and financial losses.
Year: 2014