Author(s): Jean-Raymond Bidlot; Sarah Keeley; Magdalena Balmaseda; Kristian Mogensen; Hao Zuo; Peter Janssen
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Abstract: The presence of sea ice can have a range of impacts on the atmosphere and ocean. It interacts with the surface fluxes through its albedo as well as acting as a barrier to the exchange of heat and momentum between the atmosphere and ocean. It also impacts the freshwater exchange, through salinity changes when it melts and freezes. As well as predicting the sea ice itself, sea ice also has a role as a potential source of predictability for the atmosphere. Sea ice is therefore, becoming an increasingly important component of the Earth system to capture in global forecast systems. Increases in computing power are allowing us to run ocean-atmosphere coupled forecast models from the medium to extended range. ECMWF is currently developing a fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-seaice model (Janssen et al. 2013) for forecasts from the medium to extended range. In this study, we present results for initial tests of the model on the long forecast range. We focus on predicting the Arctic summer sea ice conditions which may be the most beneficial for society and where there is the greatest year to year variability. Initial results show some skill at monthly lead times; comparable with results from other centers. The results also hint at large systematic errors that can limit the forecast skill.
Year: 2014