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Long Range Ice Forecasting Techniques in the Canadian Arctic – Initial Verification

Author(s): M-F. Gauthier; J. C. Falkingham

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Abstract: The Canadian Ice Service (CIS) provides information on past, present and future sea ice, lake ice and iceberg conditions to Canadians, to mariners of all nationalities operating in Canadian waters and to the international science community. It programs data acquisition; receives, quality controls and archives ice data; analyses and integrates data to develop a comprehensive understanding of current ice conditions; and predicts short and long range ice conditions. The first long range product to be prepared by the CIS was a seasonal outlook to assist in the summer re-supply of northern communities in 1961. This in turn led to the issue of thirty day updates throughout that season. Since then the content and the methodology used to prepare long range forecasts have changed significantly. This paper will describe the current Long Range Forecasting Techniques used to prepare the Seasonal Outlook for the Canadian Arctic and will present initial results of the verification of this forecast.

DOI:

Year: 2002

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