Author(s): Michael L. Van Woert; Cheng-Zhi Zou; Walter N. Meier; Philip D. Hovey; Michael Chase
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Abstract: The National Ice Center relies upon a coupled ice/ocean model called the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) to provide guidance for its 24-hour sea ice forecasts. Here we present results on the forecast skill of the sea ice concentration (C) fields from this system for the period June 1,2000–May 31,2002. Methods of measuring the sea ice forecast skill are adapted from the meteorological literature. The PIPS forecast skill compared to a climatological reference was high (> 0.93, relative to a maximum score of1.0) for all months due to the highly variable nature of climatology relative to forecast variability. Thus, the PIPS forecasts are significantly better than using climatology as the sea ice forecast on any given day. The PIPS forecast skill was also compared to a persistence forecast. The skill was greater than 0 for all months except the freeze-up months of November–February. The variability was greatest near the marginal ice zone (MIZ) suggesting that ice growth during the winter months at the MIZ may not be properly parameterized in PIPS.
Year: 2002