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Multiple Equilibrium Arctic Ice Cover States Induced by Ice Mechanics

Author(s): William D. Hibler Iii; Jennifer K. Hutchings

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Abstract: Ice mechanics induced multiple equilibrium states of the arctic ice cover are investigated. A non-dimensional analysis of reduction of flow through narrow passages, culminating with ice arching arising from uniaxial plastic compressive strength, is performed. By adding growth rates to this analysis it is shown that two stable equilibrium states of a given ice cover under appropriate fixed thermodynamic and wind forcing are possible depending on when the ice flow is restrained. The potential of such mechanical effects for inducing multiple equilibrium states for the Arctic Basin ice cover is investigated using realistic mean monthly winds and an idealized thermodynamic model. The analysis indicates three possible states, two of which are found to be stable. Integrations from fixed thickness initial conditions demonstrate the existence of these states under moderate climate cooling. The ramifications of this phenomenon to numerical investigations of climate employing dynamic thermodynamic sea ice models is discussed.

DOI:

Year: 2002

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