Author(s): A. Marthe L. K. Wens; Anne F. Van Loon; Ted I. E. Veldkamp; Moses N. Mwangi; Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Gent-based modelling; Drought disaster risk; Adaptation measures; Adaptive behaviour; Smallholder farmer; AquacropOS; ADOPT; Drought risk reduction
Abstract: To increase the resilience of smallholder farmers, governmental interventions might be needed to alleviate barriers to adaptation, increasing farmers’ intention to adopt drought adaptation measures. However, to which extent these interventions will steer farmers’ adaptive behaviour, hence how effective they are in reducing the farm household drought risk, remains often unknown. Analyses of future agricultural drought impacts require a multidisciplinary approach in which both human and environmental dynamics are studied. Most existing research does not account for vulnerability dynamics, the heterogeneity in human adaptive behaviour, and its feedbacks on drought risk while it are these aspects that determine, for a large part, the actual risk. Uncertainties in adaptive behaviour are often addressed by using different adaptation scenarios, but this approach fails to capture the two-way interaction between risk dynamics and adaptive behaviour dynamics [1]. In this study, we use an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model to increase our understanding of the effect of drought policies on community-scale drought vulnerability in Kenya’s drylands. Here, we present our analysis of smallholder farmers’ drought risk under different drought management policies. In addition, future drought risk and the robustness of drought policies are evaluated under different climate change scenarios
Year: 2021