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Idealised Modelling of Estuarine Development Affected by Human Interventions and Climate Change

Author(s): Rutger Siemes; Trang Minh Duong; Pim Willemsen; Bas Borsje; Suzanne Hulscher

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Abstract: Estuaries worldwide are facing the challenge of coping with changing climates. Insufficient supply of sediment to overcome sea-level rise can increase flood risk and saltwater intrusion and drowning of ecosystems. To explore how estuarine eco-morphology is affected by large-scale human interventions and climate change, an idealised eco-morphological model is developed and validated. The model represents the Nieuwe Waterweg estuary in the Rhine-Meuse Delta. Short-term simulations (1 year) are performed after human-induced changes and projected climate changes are implemented in the model. The model is able to represent annual morphological trends. Results show the sensitivity of the system towards channel depth and the presence and size of wetlands. Simulations will be repeated with projected future climate forcings, enabling assessment of estuarine development after large-scale changes for the present and the future.

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Year: 2022

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