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Estimation of Precipitation Elasticity of Streamflow from Data and Variability of Results

Author(s): J. M. Whyte

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Keywords: Rainfall-runoff relationship; Climate change; Precipitation elasticity of streamflow; Assessment of variability; Moving average; Linear regression analysis

Abstract: Relating changes in runoff to changes in rainfall enables prediction of runoff available under hypothesized climate change. One method for achieving this aim is to relate the relative changes in observed runoff and precipitation. Applying the method entails various choices, raising the question of how much the result varies with the choices made. This issue is addressed by proposing an algorithm for determination of the precipitation elasticity of streamflow and scrutinizing the steps at which decisions are necessary. The algorithm is used to determine results for two Murray–Darling Basin catchments by using data from different date ranges and also by varying the baseline period from which relative changes are determined. The range of values determined exceeds that given in pervasive statements from the literature on Australian catchments that a one percent change in rainfall is associated with approximately a two to three percent change in runoff.

DOI:

Year: 2011

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