Author(s): Y. Sato; T. Kojiri; Y. Michihiro; Y. Suzuki; E. Nakakita
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Keywords: Climate Change; AGCM20; CMIP3 Multi-model; Hydrological Extremes; Uncertainty
Abstract: To clarify the hydrological impact of climate change at a regional scale, for application to water resources management and river disaster prevention, distributed hydrological modelling was conducted for three major river basins in Japan using a super high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM20) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data. The results show that the hydrological impact of climate change is larger in the northeastern snowy region than in the south-western warm–humid region; the climate change impact on extreme hydrological events, such as the magnitude of the 1/100 annual maximum flow or the 1/10 minimum flow, will differ by region; and the projection uncertainties caused by the relatively coarse resolution of current conventional GCMs can be decreased significantly by the simple multi-model ensemble approach applied in this study.
Year: 2011