Author(s): R. Fallahzadeh; E. A. Johnson; E. J. Woolford; G. A. Hewa

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Keywords: Vandewiele; Monthly water balance; Split sample; Climate change; North Par

Abstract: The primary objective of this study was to investigate the suitability of the Vandewiele's Monthly Water Balance Model (VMWM) for predicting climate change effects in Australian catchments. For this study the North Para River catchment located in the Barossa Valley, South Australia was selected to demonstrate the methodology and the results of this investigation. This paper presents the methodology and the results of VMWM model calibration, validation, and sensitivity analyses, prior to the climate change effect investigation. It was found that the VMWM of the North Para River makes more reliable predictions at medium to low flow regime, while it makes less reliable predictions at high flow regimes. Results of the Differential Split-sample Test suggests that the model is applicable for predicting the effects of climate change where the changes occur from a wet to a dry climate condition while performance of the dry to wet condition was less satisfactory.

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Year: 2011