Author(s): Eliana Jorquera; Patricia Saco; Juan Quijano Baron; Angelo Breda; Steven G. Sandi; Jose Rodriguez
Linked Author(s): José Rodríguez, Steven Sandi
Keywords: Resilience analysis climate change mangrove wetland numerical modelling
Abstract: Climate change poses a significant threat to coastal wetlands in the Pacific Islands due to the combined effect of sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclones. In this contribution we present a hydrosedimentological-ecogeomorphological modelling framework to assess the future evolution of a climate change affected mangrove wetland in Fiji. We simulate scenarios of SLR combined with increases in agricultural use of the catchment, increases in cyclone activity and precipitation intensity and reductions in catchment sediment outputs. The model predicts that for the RCP8.5 pathway the wetland extent will be reduced by between 30% and 55% by 2120. The scenarios that enhance resilience are the ones that consider increases in sediment catchment exports due to increases in agricultural areas and increases in rainfall intensity.
Year: 2025