Author(s): Sameh Kantoush; Binh Nguyen; Duc Tran; Menna Ahmed; Doan Binh; Tetsuya Sumi
Linked Author(s): Binh Nguyen, SAMEH KANTOUSH, Tetsuya Sumi
Keywords: Mekong River basin Climate change CMIP6 Dam Disaster prevention
Abstract: In recent years, climate change and human activities have posed significant threats to water security and sustainability in the Mekong River basin, a major transboundary river system in Southeast Asia. However, our understanding of hydrological changes due to these combined factors still needs to be improved. This study examined the effects of 289 existing and planned dams and reservoirs, along with climate change projections up to 2100, using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. This dataset includes globally downscaled climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), covering all four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our findings indicate that future flow patterns are highly sensitive to these factors, showing notable changes in both annual and seasonal flows. The planned dams and reservoirs must effectively manage floods and droughts. Furthermore, the combined impact of all these factors leads to significant reductions in flow during the early wet season, creating challenges for water management and agriculture in the downstream Mekong Delta. These findings underscore the need for careful planning and consideration of human activities in the region. They provide critical insights to support regional stakeholders, authorities, and decision-makers in developing effective disaster prevention strategies.
Year: 2025