Author(s): Maria Gabriela Castrellon; Herve Singamong; Andreja Jonoski; Ioana Popescu

Linked Author(s): María Gabriela Castrellón, Ioana Popescu

Keywords: Afforestation; Climate change; Tropical hydrology

Abstract: The effectiveness of afforestation as an adaptation strategy to combat climate change in tropical regions remains poorly understood. Therefore, in this study a hydrological model was developed in HEC-HMS to simulate the impact of climate change on the streamflow of a tropical micro-catchment in central Panama, and, to evaluate the hydrological response to changes in the percentage of forest cover in the catchment. With a forest cover of 51% (baseline scenario) the model shows a reduction in annual average streamflow of 16.3% for the period 2051 – 2075. When forest cover is increased to 85%, annual average streamflow is further reduced by 9%. However, the model was unable to reproduce the expected increase in baseflow during the dry season, which suggests that the forest may be extracting more water in dry periods, rather than helping to store it in the soil. Nevertheless, this needs to be confirmed by revising and improving the current model and/or using alternative models that better represent the hydrological functioning of forests.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64697/iahr.proc.hic2026.158

Year: 2026