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Estimation of the Future Flood Damages in Japan Using GCMs and Numerical Geological Data

Author(s): Hirofumi Takiguchi; Ayumu Sato; Seiki Kawagoe; So Kazama

Linked Author(s): So Kazama

Keywords: Downscaling; Climate change; Extreme rainfall; Economic loss

Abstract: We tried to downscale some general circulation models using Mesh Climate Value 2000 (JMA) with fine solution and use this to estimate the economic damage of the flood. The results obtained are as follows; 1) The characteristic of rainfall pattern is that the Hokuriku, the central mountain range and the Nankai districts have heavier rainfall comparing with other areas in the future. 2) The extreme rainfall with the 50-year return period in current climate condition is similar to that with the 30-year return period in the 2050 future climate condition, and 3) When the extreme rainfall with the 50-year return period shifts to the 100-year return periods, the economic damages in all models with scenarios increase about from 14 to 17percent.


Year: 2010

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