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A Combined Statistical-Process Based Approach for Modelling Storm-Driven, Medium-Term, Beach Morphology

Author(s): Douglas Pender; Harshinie Karunarathna

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Abstract: The ability to predict beach stability in the mediumterm (annual to decadal) time scale has clear coastal engineering and management significance. The use of process-based models to determine beach morphodynamics is becoming increasingly popular. This paper discusses the combination of a statistical framework with a processbased, coastal morphodynamic model (XBeach), to allow modelling of medium-term, cross-shore, beach stability. This combined statistical process-based approach (SPA), models storm driven recession and post-storm recovery to determine overall beach variability. A number of sensitivity tests were carried out to assess various parameters that control model performance for erosion and accretion, with outputs assessed using a Brier Skill Score (BSS). This allowed for an accurate and efficient XBeach set up to be determined for both simulation types. The results from this study provide basis for the modelling of medium-term beach stability using the SPA. The methodology is demonstrated by applying this procedure to Narrabeen Beach in New South Wales, Australia.


Year: 2012

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