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Study on Optimization of the Integrated Dam Operation Using Ensemble Prediction in the Upper Reaches of the Nabari River

Author(s): Hiroko Masuda; Satoru Oishi

Linked Author(s): Satoru Oishi

Keywords: Optimized dam operation; Ensemble weather prediction; Stochastic dynamic programming; Nabari dam; Flood control

Abstract: One week ensemble weather forecast issued by Japan Meteorological Agency has been introduced into integrated operation of multi-reservoirs system in order to develop a short term flood control model which reduces the water level of the river. Stochastic dynamic programming has been applied for decision making of releasing water from three reservoirs with the One week ensemble weather forecast. A flood happened in Nabari river basin where river authorities conducted their integrated operation of multi-reservoirs without the ensemble forecast was selected as a case study. Water level calculated by the proposed method has been compared with the result of actual decision made by authority, one calculated under ideal condition of hundred percent weather forecast ing and one following a procedure of dam operation rule. Then the proposed method obtained the best optimization.


Year: 2013

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