Author(s): Boulet Thierry; Violeau Damien
Linked Author(s): Damien Violeau
Keywords: Climate change; Extreme sea level; Surge; Shallow water equations
Abstract: The effects of high sea surges on the stability of sea defence are well known, and many dramatic cases can be observed every year in the World. Their knowledge is useful for the coastal engineer in the context of the design of coastal works. However, the question of the stationarity of extreme surge climate has been rarely addressed in the literature. The purpose of this work is to estimate the possible evolution of extreme surges at the end of the XXIst century on the French coasts, by means of extensive numerical modelling and statistical analysis. With a climate change corresponding to IPCC’s A2 scenario, one observes that extreme positive surges should generally slowly increase, while negative surges are subject to a more complex long-term behaviour.