Author(s): Saskia Van Vuren; Huib De Vriend
Linked Author(s): Huib J. de Vriend
Keywords: 1-Dimensional modeling of morphodynamic and Hydraulic processes; Navigation; Uncertainty analysis; Monte Carlo Analysis
Abstract: The River Rhine is one of the most important inland-waterways in Europe. Half of the cargo transport from the port of Rotterdam to Germany goes via the Waal and the Niederrhein. Safe, efficient and profitable inland shipping requires a deep and wide navigation channel. Due to morphological and hydraulic change in the morphodynamic system, the water depths exhibit spatial and temporal variations. A1-dimensional morphodynamic model of the Rhine is utilised for water depth predictions. These predictions are used to assess the navigability of the river for ships of various draughts and make it possible to locate nautical bottlenecks. However, the model is subject to various sources of uncertainty, which are either inherent to the river system behaviour, or been introduced via the modelling process. In order to account for one of the main uncertainty sources, namely the river discharge, Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA) is used. This means that the Rhine model is run a large number of times, each time with a different, but statistically equivalent discharge time series. The water depths and so the navigability differ per time series. The navigable percentage comprehends uncertainty that increase with the navigation draught.