Author(s): B. A. George; R. Adams; D. Ryu; A. W. Western; P. Simon; B. Nawarathna
Keywords: Forecast; River Modelling; Broken
Abstract: Most of the rivers in the southern Murray Darling face intense water competition between agriculture and the environment which is likely to be compounded by the impact of climate change on rainfall and reduced inflows. A key need under the currently projected climate change is to improve system performance by developing a better-informed water management system. This paper examines the potential of utilizing stream flow forecasts to aid operational management decisions. The River Manager framework is used with a range of stream flow forecasting models to simulate impact on system performance of using short-term forecasting. The hydrological forecasting models include a simple autoregressive model and a catchment-based rainfall-runoff model called SimHYD. The framework has been applied to the Broken catchment in northern Victoria and the results indicate significant potential benefits from using forecast information.