Author(s): Luminda Gunawardhana; Ghazi A. Al-Rawas; So Kazama
Linked Author(s): So Kazama
Keywords: Extreme precipitation; LARS-WG; GEV distribution; CMIP5
Abstract: This study investigates how the extreme precipitation and subsequent wadi flow are affected by climate change in an arid catchment area in Oman. A lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model and 6-member ensembles of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to simulate the wadi flow response to variation in precipitation. Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared by fitting the Generalized Extreme Value distribution function. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the end of the 21 st century (81-91%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater approximately by 54-75%for all of the return periods in the late 21st century compared to the relative changes that occurred in the baseline period.