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Adaptive Genetic Consequences of Climate Change for Stream Insects: A Hydrothermal Simulation Approach

Author(s): Kei Nukazawa; So Kazama; Kozo Watanabe

Linked Author(s): So Kazama

Keywords: Mplified fragment length polymorphism; Benthic macroinvertebrates; Non-neutral LOCI; Runoff model; Species distribution model

Abstract: To understand adaptive responses of animals in stream to climate changes, we projected adaptive genetic variations and species distributions in four stream insect species under climate change scenarios, using a distributed hydrothermal model and 8 global climate models (GCM). We used nonneutral AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism) loci, which were statistically defined to be subject to natural selection, in the target species found at the Natori River catchment. For modeling species distributions, we adopted the maximum entropy model (Maxent) with presence data of the studied insects. We used bias-corrected air temperature and precipitation data of 3 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios from the GCMs to calculate current velocity, water depth and water temperature using the hydrothermal model. We used an existing linear model for estimating the allele frequency along changing climate gradients. Finally, we projected spatial pattern of genetic diversity (heterozygosity) and habitat distributions for the studied species. Genetic diversity in Stenopsyche marmorata was notably degraded under extreme climate scenarios, depending on higher stream temperature projected in the future. While genetic diversity in a catchment scale only decreased in S. marmorata of the four species, habitat range severely contracted more in other three species than for S. marmorata.


Year: 2016

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