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Identifying the Significant Criteria on Flood Vulnerability Using Shannon Entropy and Delphi

Author(s): G. Lee; K. S. Jun; E. S. Chung

Linked Author(s): Kyung Soo Jun

Keywords: Flood vulnerability; Shannon entropy; Delphi method

Abstract: Floods, as an insistent, powerful natural calamity, can cause immediate damage to human society in terms of loss of human lives and property damage; floods can also cause a much more severe or catastrophic order of damage, which may require a long time to recover from. Therefore, in order to properly evaluate the flood vulnerability of a river basin, besides the basic probability of flood disaster, factors that can cause damage to human society must be equally reflected in the evaluation. Factors selected for evaluation can be divided into more important and less important factors. Accordingly, when quantifying flood vulnerability, weights are employed, considering the importance of each factor. Weights can significantly influence the results of the evaluation; therefore, the determination of weights is a sensitive issue. In this study, criteria and weights to evaluate flood vulnerability were selected by analyzing opinions from flood management experts, collected through a questionnaire survey technique (the Delphi method), and factors that could actually influence the results of the evaluation were ranked by the Shannon Entropy method. The 24 factors employed in the evaluation were validated through a questionnaire survey technique (the modified Delphi method) conducted with 45draft criteria as targets and with the participation of 40 professional experts. The results of analysis on the basis of the weight of each factor indicated that annual flood damage, flood inundation area, and annual number of floods were the criteria with the highest appropriate weights. When data on the South Han River basin in Korea were collected and analyzed in terms of the aforementioned criteria, it was shown that flood inundation area, population and number of households, urban area, and number of flood and disaster prevention institutions were the top factors that influenced evaluation results. The same approach can provide results that are useful for flood management planning by identifying important risk factors.


Year: 2014

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