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A Comparison of Statistical and Deterministic Methods for Predicting Extreme Floods in an Alpine Catchment

Author(s): Franz Zeimetz; Ramona Receanu; Anton Schleiss; Jean-Michel Fallot

Linked Author(s): Anton J. Schleiss

Keywords: Probable maximum precipitation; Probable maximum flood; Statistical extrapolation; Alpine catchment

Abstract: Flood protection is an important issue for a densely populated country like Switzerland due to the varied topography and the multitude of rivers and lakes. Because of the potential danger caused by extreme flood, structural and functional safety of large dams must be guaranteed. A comparison between statistical methods to estimate extreme flows and a more advanced methodology based on a combination of a deterministic meteorological model generating maximum precipitation and a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model is presented here. A PMP-PMF simulation using the hydrological model is performed. The results show that the Swiss prescription of 1. 5·Q 1000 used for the spillway design is 1. 14 times smaller than the PMF calculated with a 24h-PMP and 1. 43 times smaller than the highest estimated 9h-PMF.


Year: 2014

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