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Projection of Extreme-Rainfall-Induced Landslide in Thailand Using Three Global Climate Models

Author(s): Naotatsu Inoue; Keisuke Ono; Daisuke Komori; So Kazama

Linked Author(s): So Kazama

Keywords: Global Climate Models; Landslide hazard map; Probability model; Return period; Thailand

Abstract: The objective of this study is to project probability of landslide in Thailand using landslide probability model under multiple Global Climate Models (GCMs) scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). 3 GCMs, (i.e., MIROC5, MRI-CGCM3, GFDL-ESM2G) and 4 scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were selected to projecting extreme-rainfall-induced landslide hazard maps for 3 periods (i.e., near future (2006-2035), far future (2036-2065), and very far future (2066-2095) ). Altogether 36 scenarios (3 GCMs×4 RCPs×3 periods) were used. From our model simulations, we projected the extreme daily rainfall for a 5-year return period, hydraulic gradient, and landslide hazard maps for the whole Thailand. This study will be useful to cope with future landslide hazards, which may be accelerated by climate change.


Year: 2014

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